Gulf / GCC — Sovereign

Sovereign issuers from the GCC (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, etc.).

While headline GCC sovereign flow is dominated by highgrade issuance from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar, our current screen highlights an asymmetric relative value opportunity further down the credit spectrum in Bahraini paper. Offering yields spanning the mid8% to doubledigit territory, these USDdenominated sovereign bonds provide institutional portfolios with an aggressive highbeta carry vehicle underpinned by implied Gulf institutional support. The shortend of the curve offers a compelling liquidity premium, evidenced by the Bahrain 6.5% maturing in April 2028 screening at a standout 10.189% yield to worst. This frontend anomaly presents tactical investors with an attractive riskadjusted entry point to lock in doubledigit dollar yields over a manageable mediumterm duration profile. Moving further out, the sovereign curve flattens into a sustained highyield band, with longerdated instruments like the Bahrain 7.5% in 2047 and the 6.25% notes due 2051 trading at deep discounts with yields hovering between 8.4% and 8.6%. These depressed cash prices and elevated yields offer portfolio managers a rare opportunity to secure longduration emerging market yield within a stable currencypegged jurisdiction.

Results are limited to USD bonds with an amount outstanding of at least USD 200MM.